Probably Stolen is the kind of game that sounds boring on paper and then eats your entire evening. You run a tiny shop on the lower levels of a space station, buy junk from strangers, sell it for a little more than you paid, and try not to get robbed, raided, or evicted in the process. It launched on Steam on October 28, 2026, shot straight up the top-seller charts, and it deserves the attention — but only if you walk in understanding how it actually works. This Probably Stolen beginner’s guide covers the first week, the trading system, and the mistakes that end runs early.
What Is Probably Stolen, and What Are You Trying to Do?
Probably Stolen is a pixel-art cyberpunk shopkeeping simulator from Questing Goose Studio, published by tinyBuild. You are a shopkeeper on a grimy space station where every customer might be a scavenger with honest goods, a fence moving stolen tech, a Security officer fishing for evidence, or something pretending to be human. Your long-term goal is simple to state and hard to pull off: earn enough to buy the store outright instead of renting it forever.
On Mark Up, the normal difficulty, the deed costs 12,000 credits on Day 1. If that sounds impossibly far away, there is another route: early in a run, the Loan Shark offers a mortgage — 2,000 credits upfront, then 930 credits a week for 12 weeks. Either way, everything you do in the first week is about building a cushion, because rent comes knocking every seven days and it goes up each time. There are 17 endings in total, but only two are buyout victories. The rest are the many creative ways a shopkeeper goes broke.
What Is the Best Specialization for Beginners in Probably Stolen?
Before your first day, the game asks you to pick a specialization and a difficulty. There are ten specializations, and the one tagged for new players is Apprentice — take it. On Mark Up difficulty, Apprentice starts with 550 credits, a Storage Bay, and stock in Household Goods and Food, which is a forgiving combination while you are still learning what sells.
For difficulty, Mark Up (Normal) is the honest default: a 15% automatic retail markup on sales, with rent rising 5% each time it comes due. Price Gouge (Cozy) is gentler at 20% markup and 2% rent growth, and it is a fine choice if you just want to learn the systems without pressure. Thin Margins (Hard) removes the markup entirely with 10% rent growth, and Red Ink (Challenge) does the same while pushing the deed price to 36,000 credits. My advice? Start on Mark Up. The markup teaches you the core loop — buy low, sell slightly higher, repeat — without the game feeling like a spreadsheet.
How Does Trading Work in Probably Stolen?
Every day follows the same rhythm. Press the green button on the wall to open the shutter, then the green button on the counter to call customers in. To trade, you drag items — or Ctrl-click them — onto the Negotiation Counter, which opens the negotiation interface. One detail trips up almost every new player, so burn it into your brain: when the panel says the customer is SELLING, that means you are buying from them. When it says BUYING, you are selling to them. Get that backwards once and you will wonder where your credits went.
Before you put anything on the counter, read the customer’s Interests, their budget, and any restrictions. Customers have limited money, and some will only buy certain things — one early buyer, for example, has a Variety restriction and a budget of just 96 credits. Selling is not about dumping your whole stock on one person; it is about matching the right item to the right wallet. And keep both sides of the counter clear when you are not trading, because items left sitting on the outside counter can be stolen. The Mentor’s notes spell this out on Day 1, and they are worth actually reading rather than clicking past.
Speaking of Day 1: it is a scripted tutorial day with five customers. The Mentor arrives first and leaves two notes — one on trading, one explaining that Food is the station’s most frequently traded commodity and should always be in stock. You will buy five items from a Scavenger for 95 credits, sell to a couple of Spacers, and meet Officer Lun from Security, who points out the alarm button under the counter and leaves the Wanted poster. End the day by closing the store and sleeping; power costs 5 credits a night, and a clean Day 1 on Mark Up ends with 598 credits in your pocket.
How Do You Make Money in Probably Stolen?
Here is the honest answer: slowly at first, then faster once you stop buying things you cannot sell. The retail markup is your baseline profit, but the real money comes from a few extra systems that open up across week one:
- Wholesale deals. From Day 2, watch for bulk offers at a discount — one early example is a scrap pile bought for 64 credits and sold on for 92. A 33% or 15% discount is only a deal if the next customer actually wants the item.
- Scavenging. After closing, you can leave the store and head to the Dumping Ground with a backpack. You get five attempts per trip, and the chance of getting wounded climbs the longer you push your luck. Free stock is great; a hospital bill is not.
- The Display Case. Before you open each morning, fill the Display Case on the shop wall. Its goods bring in a buyer for that item type the next day, while a Neon Sign brings a seller. This is the closest thing the game has to advertising, and it is free.
- Bargains. From around Day 8, the Mentor teaches you to haggle prices up or down. Until then, the listed price is the price — do not waste time looking for a haggle button that is not there yet.
- The Wanted list. Nine bounties worth between 100 and 1,500 credits are posted over the course of a run. If someone on the list walks in, hit the alarm — but only when you are certain. False reports get you fined, and a fine in week one hurts.
How Does Rent Work in Probably Stolen?
Rent is the clock ticking under every decision you make. On Mark Up, the Landlord collects 200 credits on Day 7, then again on Day 14, Day 21, and so on, with the amount rising 5% each time. That first 200 is very achievable if your Day 1 ends near 598 credits and you keep trading — but it is also very easy to blow on a bad bulk purchase or a shelf full of stock nobody wants.
The practical rule is this: never let your balance drop below the next rent payment plus a small buffer. If rent is 200 and you have 230, you do not have 230 credits to spend — you have 30. Players who treat the whole balance as spending money are the ones staring at an eviction notice on Day 7 wondering what happened. Keep services in mind too: power costs 5 credits a night, and you can toggle services on or off each night before sleeping.
How Do You Spot Fake Items and Avoid Trouble?
Probably Stolen’s middle game is about trust — or the lack of it. From Day 3, the Mentor hands you a magnifying glass and teaches counterfeit identification. You inspect items and compare them against the in-game manuals, looking for small differences in packaging: a wrong logo or seal on a packet of Hemingway cigarettes, for instance, is a giveaway. Fakes are not worthless, either. A labeler, introduced a little later, lets you relabel counterfeit merchandise and raise its resale value. It is a risky trade, but so is everything else on this station.
Security is the other side of the same coin. Inspections happen, and bribes are a real mechanic — the price runs 100 credits plus twice the day number, minus twice your Security reputation, landing somewhere between 40 and 400 credits. Keep a bribe reserve if you are holding anything questionable, and hide contraband properly rather than leaving it on display. Reputation matters here in a very concrete way: selling contaminated or fake goods hurts your standing, fewer customers show up, and fewer customers means less money for rent. The loop always comes back to rent.
One more warning worth taking seriously: from around Day 12, the Mentor starts warning you about Augs — rogue AI-augmented people who mimic customers. Check customers carefully before you deal with them, and if something feels off, it probably is.
Beginner Mistakes That Kill a Run
Most failed first runs die the same few ways, and all of them are avoidable. Buying stock without checking who will buy it is the big one — a bargain is only a bargain if it sells. Leaving items on the outside counter and getting robbed is the embarrassing one. Spending down to your last credits the day before rent is the painful one. And ignoring the market is the slow one: prices move with supply and demand, and shortages can push Food and water prices sharply up or crash the value of something everyone is suddenly selling. Watch the market, keep Food in stock, and do not panic-sell into a glut.
It also pays to press O and leave the hint overlay on for your first few days. It labels every working part of the shop and reminds you that the game autosaves after sleeping — which means there is no save-scumming your way out of a bad deal. Live with your choices, learn the price of them, and start the next run smarter. That is the whole game, honestly, and it is why people keep coming back.
Frequently Asked Questions
For a full day-by-day breakdown of the first week, the detailed Probably Stolen beginner guide at All Things How walks through Day 1 trade by trade, and their complete guide to buying the store covers difficulties, specializations, and the road to the deed.
What is the best specialization for beginners in Probably Stolen?
Apprentice. It is tagged as recommended for new players, starts with 550 credits, a Storage Bay, and Household Goods and Food stock, and its tutorial-style opening teaches the trading systems step by step.
How do you make money fast in Probably Stolen?
There is no single fast trick. Combine the automatic retail markup with discounted wholesale deals, after-hours scavenging at the Dumping Ground, Display Case advertising to attract buyers, and Wanted-list bounties. The fastest money comes from buying only stock you already have a buyer for.
How does rent work in Probably Stolen?
The Landlord collects rent every seven days — Day 7, Day 14, Day 21, and so on. On Mark Up difficulty the first payment is 200 credits and rises 5% each time. Always keep at least the next rent payment in reserve before spending on stock.
Is Probably Stolen Worth Playing?
If you like management games where every decision has a price tag, absolutely. It is one of the breakout Steam hits of late October 2026 for a reason — it takes the humble shopkeeper fantasy and fills it with haggling, smuggling, inspections, and a landlord who does not care about your feelings. Our Probably Stolen launch coverage has the release details, and the sales story is wild too — see how it sold 350,000 copies in its first 24 hours. And if you enjoy small-scale money-making games, our Moon Sweepers tips guide covers another surprise indie hit from the same week. Start as an Apprentice, keep Food on the shelves, respect the rent, and do not trust anyone at the counter until you have checked their story. Good luck, shopkeeper.
